Political analysts believe that the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) is unlikely to gain support from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) for their demands for fresh elections. The CCC has raised concerns about the integrity of the 23 – 24 August 2023 polls, which declared President Emmerson Mnangagwa as the winner. The CCC has hinted at legal challenges and has called for Sadc and AU intervention.
However, experts argue that foreign supervision of elections may not be feasible. They suggest that SADC and AU would likely advise pursuing legal avenues before considering intervention. The CCC’s past calls for international supervision of elections have also been unsuccessful.
Local political analysts emphasize the need for the opposition to protect their current gains and engage in political dialogue to reform election institutions. Professor of world politics at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, Stephen Chan, said:
It seems the strategy is to call upon Sadc and the AU to support this call. This may not be successful.
Observer reports are one thing, repudiating a government, even one in place by tainted means, is something else.
SADC will say try the courts first, but the courts, in like ruling against the CCC, will simply validate the government, further reinforcing the Sadc/AU reluctance actually to intervene.
Local political analyst Rashweat Mukundu said while the CCC’s demand for fresh elections may not be realised, they should continue advocating for electoral reforms. He said:
I think it’s a bold statement by CCC that Zimbabwe needs a fresh election managed by a neutral body, it could be Sadc or the AU. Of course, the question then is: will that be accepted moreso in light of what the Constitution says?
The key question is: what happens to the Constitution of Zimbabwe in terms of the management of elections which essentially puts the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) in that position and role?
Even if the call for fresh elections does not happen, the CCC still needs to defend and protect its current gains and still push for political dialogue on reforming institutions that are responsible for elections.
Another political analyst Effie Ncube, however, urged the opposition to explore various strategies and utilizing both local and international platforms. Ncube said:
There is no silver bullet in this tragedy. Therefore, every avenue must be tried to resolve a potentially explosive situation.
There are a range of tools and strategies out there that can be used to deliver a better outcome from the dispute around the election results.
That the CCC has picked one of these does not mean that others should be discarded. Instead, the situation may actually require a combination of strategies and the wise use of local and international platforms.
Advocate Thabani Mpofu disagrees with the opposition CCC’s call for fresh elections, suggesting they focus on protecting their current gains and recovering what they believe was stolen. The CCC won 73 seats in the National Assembly during the recent harmonized elections, but their presidential candidate, Nelson Chamisa, lost to President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ZANU PF party.