Brighton Mutebuka, a Zimbabwean lawyer based in the United Kingdom, has advised Nelson Chamisa, the leader of the opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) party, to promptly register a dispute with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) using the Special Electoral Advisory Council (SEAC) process. This process allows non-state actors to register disputes. The advice comes after the SADC Election Observer Mission (SEOM) released its final report on Zimbabwe’s August 2023 elections, urging parties with grievances to pursue appropriate legal channels to exhaust domestic legal remedies.
Many have been wondering what could be the next steps for the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) as they relied on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to pressure Zimbabwe into holding new elections. However, the final report from the SADC Election Observer Mission (SEOM) dampened hopes for fresh elections.
Brighton Mutebuka advises that raising the dispute alone is not sufficient. In a post seen by Pindula News, he suggests that Zimbabweans, especially the opposition, should diplomatically and constitutionally highlight the dispute. Mutebuka warns that the ZANU PF government will likely oppose any protests. He said on X (formerly Twitter):
Way Forward After The SEOM’s Final Report
1. Many Zimbabweans have been asking what the way forward should now be following the conclusion of the SEOM process.
2. My answer is that @nelsonchamisa & @CCCZimbabwe should move swiftly to register a dispute with SADC using the SEAC process which provides for registration of disputes by non-state actors.
3. Unlike the SEOM process, there is no discretion involved in dealing with such a dispute and all parties to that dispute are treated equally, while provision is also made for its swift resolution.
4. The mechanics surrounding how the dispute is raised can obviously not be shared here given the sensitivity involved.
5. The options available in terms of how the dispute can be resolved are much broader and not as constraining as the situation under the SEOM process which the regime in Zimbabwe obviously treats with contempt.
6. It is not enough to simply raise the dispute. Zimbabweans in general and the opposition in particular should then seek to dramatise that dispute diplomatically & constitutionally, including via sustained, collective peaceful street protests, so that there is no mismatch between an ongoing SEAC process and the prevailing political environment on the ground like we have seen with the SEOM process.
Brighton Mutebuka warned that the Zimbabwean regime will likely oppose peaceful protests, resorting to brutal responses such as live ammunition, arbitrary arrests, and denial of bail. Mutebuka believes that successful mobilization and overcoming fear are crucial. He states that Nelson Chamisa, the opposition leader, cannot act alone as he would be immediately shot or arrested, leading to the end of the opposition movement.
Mutebuka says he prefers a scenario where the regime sets aside its pride, stops its current actions, and allows SADC mediation for a free and fair election. However, he acknowledges that the regime is unlikely to cooperate, and the current situation is unsustainable, necessitating a change.
Mutebuka warns that peaceful protests must have sufficient numbers and an effective challenge to the regime, as failure to do so will erode faith in the opposition and elections, potentially leading to radical elements emerging. He also criticizes the opposition’s disengagement from Parliament, which he sees as inadequate. He says the opposition’s lack of consistency confuses its supporters and fails to impose any political consequences on the regime or ruling elite.
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He said a timely and effective response was needed to address the electoral misconduct and take advantage of the momentum and SADC SEOM process. While nationwide consultations were important for raising awareness and support, they have been overshadowed by the Sengezo Tshabangu recalls of CCC MPs and councillors, posing an existential challenge. He says a powerful and defiant response is now imperative to maintain credibility and morale, but it’s a difficult task considering the gravity of the situation.