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OpenRushing To Ban Multi-Currency Regime Could Backfire, Warns Mugano
Local economist Gift Mugano has warned the government against hastily banning the current multi-currency regime and making the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency the sole legal tender.
Mugano made the comments in response to calls from some sectors to eliminate the use of the United States dollar, particularly as the local currency has experienced rapid devaluation on the parallel market just five months after its introduction. Wrote Mugano:
I hear repeated calls for the introduction of mono-currency in favour of ZiG (banning USD).
My 2 cents advice is that if GoZ bans the USD it will be the biggest loser because the informal sector will not dump the USD – GoZ will lose tax in USD.
Policy only works in a formal economy. In circumstances where the informal sector is so huge, IT CANNOT WORK!
Where we are, GOZ must let USD work as a mono currency & work on establishing the right fundamentals for the introduction of a local currency which inter alia include:
1. Building a productive & competitive economy
2. Building foreign currency reserves averaging 6 months import cover (US$4.5 billion)
3. Fiscal consolidation – reducing public debt to levels averaging 30% of GDP
4. Stable exchange rates with distortions not exceeding 10%
5. Current account surplus
6. Single digit inflation
7. Establishment of strong institutions with enough teeth to rein corruption & other social ills including fostering rule of law
8. National cohesion – credible elections, elimination of toxic politics, no crackdown of opposition & weaponisation of judiciary
9. Provision of critical enablers such as affordable & reliable electricity, fuel, transport (road, rail & air), ICT, water & sanitation, health and education.
10. Confidence – if we put in place the points I raised from 1 – 9, we will ensure that there is confidence.
This is not a walk in the park. This will not happen overnight. If we are not careful, it will take us decades to have our local currency.
Already, we have travelled 27 years with currency crisis since the Black Friday of 14 November 1997!
The challenge I give to the GoZ is to undertake a comprehensive research focused on the need to understand why our currencies are failing & what needs to be done.
This is critical in view of the fact that we have lost many currencies in recent years!
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