The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has allocated a total of 27 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water for power generation in 2025, up from 16 BCM it allocated for 2024.
This water will be shared equally between Zambia’s ZESCO Limited and the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC).
ZRA announced this update on September 27, 2024, which includes information about water allocation at Kariba Dam, the outlook for rainfall in the Kariba Catchment area, and current water levels in the reservoir.
In making this allocation, ZRA considered the weather forecast from the Southern African Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), which predicts conditions for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region during the 2024/2025 rainfall season. Said ZRA:
During the Southern African Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) held in Harare, Zimbabwe in August 2024, local, regional and international weather experts provided the forecast for the upcoming 2024/2025 rainfall season.
The forum predicted that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, which includes the Kariba Catchment, is likely to experience Normal to Above- Normal rainfall during the 2024/2025 rainfall season. Furthermore, it was indicated that the season would commence during the last quarter of 2024.
In addition to the SARCOF projections, the Meteorological Departments of Zambia and Zimbabwe provided the associated downscaled forecasts.
Both forecasts indicate that the Kariba Lower Catchment (covering northern Zimbabwe) and the North-eastern Angola section of the Zambezi River Catchment are likely to receive Below-Normal rainfall from October 2024 to January 2025.
This could negatively impact river inflows into Lake Kariba during that period.
ZRA added that based on hydrological simulations and consultations, it has decided to allocate a total of 27 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water for power generation at Kariba Dam in 2025.
This water will be divided equally, with ZESCO Limited and the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) each receiving 13.5 BCM.
This water allocation will be reviewed at the end of March 2025, considering the actual rainfall, river inflows, and current water levels in the dam.
In December 2023, ZRA had allocated 16 billion cubic metres of water for 2024, also shared equally between ZESCO and ZPC.
As of September 23, 2024, the usable water storage in Lake Kariba was only 7%, compared to 22.88% on the same date in 2023.
In recent months, ZPC has been generating a maximum of 215 MW of power at the Kariba South Hydro Power Station after ZRA reduced the water supply to the two power plants.
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