Economic commentator Gift Mugano has warned the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) against floating the exchange rate without adequate foreign currency reserves.
Mugano said the move by Zimbabwe’s central bank on Friday, 27 September, to liberalise the ZiG currency is “suicidal” adding that the RBZ “just put nail on the ZiG coffin.” He said:
In our instance, I think we are now at a deeper end. We are in the middle of the storm, that we have adopted a local currency, we do not have enough reserves and we are supposed to liberalise.
So, it’s like committing suicide and again if you don’t liberalise you are still committing suicide again. We need to go back to the drawing board and say how do we address this.
Instead of liberalising the exchange rate, Mugano suggested that the RBZ should scrap the ZiG, return to USD mono-currency, and introduce the ZiG when the time is ripe – when the right fundamentals are in place.
A Harare-based economist, who declined to be named for professional reasons, told Business Weekly that liberalisation and maintaining controls present significant risks, and “there is no easy solution.” Said the economist:
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is facing a daunting task. Liberalising the foreign exchange market could lead to hyperinflation while maintaining controls could exacerbate shortages and inefficiencies.
The Government must carefully consider the potential consequences of both options.
A poorly executed liberalisation could have disastrous consequences for the economy.
The best solution for Zimbabwe may lie in a gradual and carefully managed approach to liberalisation, combined with targeted measures to address the underlying causes of economic instability.
On Friday, September 27, the central bank devalued the ZiG by over 40% against the US dollar, changing the exchange rate from 14.1 ZiG per dollar to 24.3 ZiG per dollar.
However, the RBZ has not clarified whether the currency will float freely or if it will continue to control the exchange rate after the devaluation.
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