The Zimbabwean government is forecasting a strong economic rebound in 2025 as the country recovers from an El Niño-induced drought that has affected agricultural production, increased demand for imports, and strained state finances.

Presenting the 2025 National Budget at the New Parliament Building in Mount Hampden, Harare, on Thursday, November 28, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube projected a 6% expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025, a significant increase from the 2% growth expected in 2024. Ncube had previously anticipated a 5.3% growth for 2024. He said:

The domestic economy is still projected to record a growth of 2% in 2024. However, the agriculture sector, which was initially projected to contract by -21%, is now expected to contract by -15% on account of better than anticipated output on wheat and dairy.

This improvement will, however, be offset by lower performance in mining and manufacturing sectors, maintaining the overall growth forecast of 2%.

In the outlook, economic growth is now projected at 6% in 2025, slightly below the initial forecast of 6.5%.

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The projected strong economic performance is expected to emanate from the recovery in the agriculture sector, which is poised to grow by 12.8%, electricity generation by 10.6%, information technology by 9.9% and by mining 5.6%.

The anticipated La-Nina weather phenomenon, usually associated with normal to above-normal rainfall, is going to be the major driver of growth in agriculture and electricity generation.

Ncube said the 2025 economic growth projections are underpinned by normal to above-normal rainfall which is expected to result in increased agricultural production, a stable exchange rate and low inflation providing a conducive doing business environment, and tight fiscal and monetary policies.

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