The expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage in Zimbabwe has been made possible in large part by USAID’s flagship program, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

By 2023, about 1.2 million people which is more than 90% of the nation’s ART-eligible population had received ART support from PEPFAR.

Withdrawing USAID funding would probably cause ART coverage to drop sharply, endangering the lives of hundreds of thousands of Zimbabweans living with HIV/AIDS.

According to USAID’s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) program, Zimbabwe’s HIV prevalence rate has declined from 14.3% in 2010 to 12.9% in 2020. However, this progress is fragile and reversible.

The HIV/AIDS Program Index (HAPI), a composite measure of HIV/AIDS program performance, would likely decline precipitously in the absence of USAID funding.

This, in turn, would exacerbate the HIV/AIDS epidemic, undermining Zimbabwe’s progress towards achieving the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets.

In regards to maternal and child health, maternal mortality rates decreased from roughly 614 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2010 to about 462 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2024 as a result of USAID’s efforts.

Thanks to USAID’s assistance with vaccine campaigns, the immunization coverage for children under one-year-old rose from over 80% in 2013 to over 90% by 2023.

Zimbabwe’s food security situation would be significantly impacted if USAID aid were to be discontinued.

In Zimbabwe, increasing agricultural productivity, expanding market access, and improving nutrition outcomes have all been made possible by USAID’s Feed the Future (FtF) program.

More than 1.5 million metric tons of maize have been produced thanks to FtF as of 2022, surpassing the nation’s production goals.

However, Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector would probably see a sharp drop in production without USAID financing, endangering the nation’s food security position.

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) would likely deteriorate in the absence of USAID funding. Zimbabwe’s GHI score has improved from 19.1 in 2010 to 15.3 in 2020, indicating a moderate level of hunger.

However, a withdrawal of USAID funding would likely reverse this progress, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition in Zimbabwe and likely affecting the Human Development Index (HDI) which had improved from 0.51 in 2010 to 0.57 in 2020, indicating a moderate level of human development.

Can the Government manage without USAID? With a sizable amount of the budget going towards debt servicing and ongoing expenses, Zimbabwe’s budgetary space is severely limited.

The nation’s capacity to raise domestic funds to cover USAID’s funding shortfall would be hampered by its budget deficit.

Inadequate technical know-how, ineffective mechanisms, and a lack of human resources define Zimbabwe’s institutional capacity to oversee and carry out development initiatives.

Ineffectiveness, corruption, and a lack of transparency afflict the nation’s public financial management (PFM) systems, which are essential for efficient resource allocation and use.

Moreover, Zimbabwe’s development frameworks and policies, such as the Zimbabwe National Development Strategy (NDS1), lack clear prioritization, coordination, and resource allocation mechanisms.

Achieving sustainable development results depends on Zimbabwe’s capacity to move from a donor-dependent to a self-sustaining development model, according to USAID’s Development Assistance Framework (DAF).

Failure to solve the aforementioned issues, however, will make it more difficult for the nation to fill the financing shortfall that USAID might leave in 2025, endangering development achievements and threatening the nation’s chances for sustainable development.