Zimbabwe’s industries are worried that Chinese lenders, who financed the US$1.4 billion refurbishment of the Hwange Thermal Power Station, may “switch off” the facility due to ZESA Holdings’ struggles to service the debt.
If banks pull the trigger, Zimbabwe faces worsening power shortages, compounding the nation’s already dire economic situation, which includes inflation, foreign currency shortages, bankruptcies, and the loss of global brands.
Blackouts of up to 18 hours a day are already hindering industrial growth, with investors warning of long-term economic ramifications from the ongoing energy crisis.
Zimbabwe’s largest power source, the 600-megawatt Hwange plant, has become crucial after a drought severely reduced generation at the Kariba South Hydroelectric Power Plant, leading to the worst blackouts in 44 years, according to some industrialists.
ZESA began paying US$36 million in monthly instalments to Chinese lenders in October of last year.
However, it was only able to make its first payment after pushing for a tariff hike to improve its capacity to service the debt for the refurbishment of Hwange’s Units 7 and 8.
In an interview with the <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/local-news/article/200035282/chinese-debt-threatens-to-switch-off-hwange">Zimbabwe Independent</a>, Christopher Mugaga, chief executive officer at ZNCC, urged authorities to ensure that the debt is paid. Said Mugaga:
<blockquote>
We have to pay the debt. We have been failing to service Hwange 7 and 8 in terms of debt repayment to the Chinese, which is an issue.
Even if units 7 and 8 continue firing on all cylinders, the debt position can make the Chinese switch off until we pay. This is the reason why I say the power situation is dire.
If you look at the impact of power shortages, they are having far and wide impacts in terms of literally all sectors of the economy.
We are looking at power outages on average of more than 60% of working hours.
The power challenges are eroding or threatening GDP (gross domestic product) growth by almost 0,8 percentage points.
</blockquote>
Mugaga said the ongoing electricity crisis has led to approximately 45,000 people losing their jobs or facing an industry downturn, leaving it unable to create new employment opportunities. He said:
<blockquote>
As I talk to you, if you look at the Kariba power station, we are generating an average of 100MW.
You can imagine how terrible it is. Units 7 and 8 are generating about 600MW. They are operating well. Unit 5 is literally dysfunctional; it has a capacity of about 150MW.
Then Units 1 to 4 are producing less than 100MW. They are always under repair and failing.
On average, you will see that we are not looking at less than 45 000 human bodies who could potentially have been employed but either are losing their jobs, or no jobs are created due to the power challenges alone.
</blockquote>
The Hwange Units 7 and 8 Expansion Project was financed by the China Exim Bank, which provided a loan of around US$1 billion. The bank also provided a loan of US$319 million for the expansion project at Kariba Hydro Power Station.
However, it remains unclear whether the lenders have legally binding authority to shut down the power station over the debt.
Zimbabwe and China maintain strong diplomatic relations, and analysts suggest that these ties will play a big role in shaping how Chinese lenders address the debt issue.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Zimbabwe owes a lot of money to China for fixing a power plant. If they don't pay, China might turn off the power plant, making things worse in Zimbabwe. The power plant is very important because it provides a lot of electricity for the country. Without power, businesses can't work properly, and more people might lose their jobs. The government is trying to increase electricity prices to pay back the debt, but it's still a big problem. China and Zimbabwe are friends, so they might find a solution together.

Chinese Lenders May "Switch Off" Hwange Power Plant Over Debt, Warns Industry

Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) chief executive officer, Chris Mugaga, said the reason businesses put a premium on the official exchange rate when setting prices was that there was no foreign currency readily available in the formal market.
In an interview with <a href="https://www.businessweekly.co.zw/no-mercy-for-violating-exchange-rate-treasury/">Business Weekly</a>, Mugaga said businesses are forced to source foreign currency from the black market because it is not available in the banks. He said:
<blockquote>
The reason why our constituency put premiums is that they have acknowledged that we cannot get (adequate) forex from the banks. If you go to the bank looking for forex you will not get it.
So, if you cannot get the forex from the banks, where else can you get it other than the black market?
Like it or not, the black market remains a major source of forex for most businesses.
</blockquote>
On Wednesday, Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister, Mthuli Ncube, warned that businesses caught pricing their products or services using an exchange rate higher than the official rate risk severe penalties.
Responding to questions from legislators during a National Assembly sitting, Ncube said there is no longer any “basis” for shops to use any rate above the official rate after the government recently removed the legal provision allowing traders to put a 10 per cent margin above the ruling interbank exchange rate.
However, Mugaga argued that the stability of the ZiG currency counted for little as long as businesses struggled to secure foreign currency to import raw materials. He said:
<blockquote>
What the minister is saying does not define what is happening on the ground. What is happening is that if you go to the banks looking for foreign currency you are not able to get it.
If the minister wants a comprehensive approach, he must look at the whole supply and demand of forex.
If he considers only the stability of ZiG, he will be starting from the front end of the demand and supply chain.
</blockquote>
Some business executives say they are now allowed to price products at the exchange rate at which they would have purchased forex from their banks.
When contacted for comment by Business Weekly on the new position, Central Bank Governor John Mushayavanhu could only say “We will issue a statement to clarify.”
Zimbabwe’s economy is nearly 80 per cent dollarised and several businesses have also learnt to survive largely on their domestic foreign currency sales receipts, which they say remain inadequate to cover their needs.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Currency Scarcity Drives Premium Pricing, Says ZNCC CEO Chris Mugaga

Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) CEO, Chris Mugaga, has said President Emmerson Mnangagwa should appoint a fresh set of permanent secretaries with the requisite skills to lead the ministries.
Mnangagwa on Monday appointed a new 26-member cabinet following his re-election for a second and final term last month.
Speaking to ZBC, Mugaga said there should be deeper changes in the civil service and those who fail to deliver should be fired. He said:
<blockquote>
What is much more of a concern is not necessarily the personalities who comprise the Cabinet, but rather the institutional framework on deliverables.
The culture of delivery must be in place. Those who fail to deliver should be shown the exit door.
It’s also vital to appreciate that Cabinet (ministers) work with permanent secretaries.
We want to believe that, going forward, there will also be a review of the calibre of skills leading different ministries in the form of permanent secretaries.
If that’s done, then we can analyse the impact these Cabinet ministers will have.
</blockquote>
Ministers provide policy direction in government, with Permanent Secretaries responsible for running the Ministries.
Permanent Secretaries, who act as the CEOs of Ministries, are supported by directors of various units.
In 2021, Mnangagwa introduced performance-based contracts for Cabinet Ministers, Permanent Secretaries and heads of parastatals.
Meanwhile, Mnangagwa retained several individuals from the previous cabinet, among them Mthuli Ncube (Finance and Investment Promotion), Kazembe Kazembe (Home Affairs and Cultural Heritage), Ziyambi Ziyambi (Justice Legal and Parliamentary Affairs) Anxious Masuka (Lands and Agriculture), Amon Murwira (Higher and Tertiary Education) Oppah Muchinguri-Kashiri (Defence and Security), and Frederick Shava (Foreign Affairs and International Trade).
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

ZNCC Urges Mnangagwa To Appoint Fresh Set Of Permanent Secretaries

According to economists and business executives, the demand for commodities and services has started to weaken due to the rising cost of living. The depreciation of the Zimbabwe dollar has eroded the buying power of many people, particularly those formally employed and earning local currency.
Economics professor <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Gift_Mugano/">Gift Mugano</a> stated that disposable incomes have been significantly eroded by inflation, leaving consumers with little to spend. While 80% of transactions are now conducted in US dollars, there is not enough liquidity in that currency to stimulate demand. Mugano believes that the majority of workers in the formal and informal sectors are not earning enough to stimulate demand. He said last week:
<blockquote>
It’s not about dollarisation or the US dollar dominance, but it is about liquidity, which is quite small.
That is why we have seen prices in the US dollars going down because there is no money to stimulate demand.
Buying power has been eroded and the US dollar incomes have been typically quite low.
</blockquote>
The <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Confederation_of_Zimbabwe_Industries/">Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI)</a> president, Kurai Matsheza, stated that companies are beginning to witness a massive decline in aggregate demand. He said:
<blockquote>
Certainly until and unless the pay adjustments match the depreciation (of the currency), aggregate demand naturally diminishes and more importantly, would the employers be able to match the salaries to the levels of (currency) depreciation? I don’t think so.
 What we are seeing in our businesses is the coming down of demand; it is drying up even the order quantities have also come down.
</blockquote>
However, the chief executive of the <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/ZNCC/">Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC),</a> Christopher Mugaga, believes that aggregate demand is not determined by incomes and salaries from the formal sector because they are insignificant and compensated by artificial demand. He said:
<blockquote>
Aggregate demand is not determined by incomes and salaries from the formal sector because they are very insignificant. That insignificant portion is compensated by artificial demand because there are already fears of shortages of products.
</blockquote>
According to some analysts, the decline in order quantities for manufacturers may not be due to weakening demand, but rather changes in trading terms. Schweppes managing director, Charles Msipa said companies are now insisting on upfront Zimbabwe dollar payments, which has become difficult for some. Msipa added that it is still too early to determine the demand patterns due to these changes, particularly in the formal sector, which predominantly uses the Zimbabwe dollar. Msipa stated that it is hard to know if the uptake of the product is low when retailers do not have their products on their shelves.
Last month, the Finance and Economic Development Minister, Prof <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Mthuli_Ncube/">Mthuli Ncube</a>, announced policy measures to stabilize the economy. However, the domestic currency has depreciated by roughly 393% against the US dollar.
While some suggest dollarisation may help, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor, Dr <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/John_Mangudya/">John Mangudya</a>, stated that full dollarisation of the economy would lead to weakening demand for goods and services. He said the rate at which US dollars go out is faster than the rate at which they come in, and dollarisation would lead to companies scaling down and job losses.
<h3><a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">More Pindula News</a></h3>

Business Executives: Demand Weakens Due To Rising Cost Of Living

Economists have implored Treasury to desist from announcing monetary policy measures saying this undermines the role of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) in restoring confidence in the market.
The call came after Finance and Economic Development Minister Mthuli Ncube and the RBZ’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently made contradicting pronouncements on macroeconomic and financial developments in the economy.
In his statement, Ncube said all export proceeds that remain unutilised after 90 days will be liquidated onto the interbank market.
However, the MPC said, “in order to ensure that the interbank forex market is self-financing, the 90-day liquidation requirement on export proceeds will fall away”.
Speaking in an interview with <a href="https://www.businessweekly.co.zw/hands-off-monetary-policy-treasury-told/">Business Weekly</a>, Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) chief executive officer Christopher Mugaga Treasury should avoid announcing monetary measures. Said Mugaga:
<blockquote>
The Treasury should avoid announcing monetary measures because the central bank has never announced fiscal measures.
We are imploring the Treasury that any statement they think is necessary to the market, they can actually co-issue it or co-sign it than have a statement on monetary issues coming from the Treasury.
The signal that is created is that when the market starts losing confidence in the central bank, the sentiment will be like the Treasury does not have confidence in the central bank and once that happens even the currency issued by the central bank loses value because the market does not have confidence.
What makes people accept the currency is believing that the currency has value.
What needs to be solved possibly is the conflation of these two institutions (Treasury and RBZ) because it will create a challenge in the future, conflation in the sense that the central bank should never ever enter the arena of fiscal activities, either quasi-fiscal activities or fiscal.
</blockquote>
In a separate interview with the publication, another economic commentator Wendy Mpofu said:
<blockquote>
By announcing monetary policy measures, the Treasury is creating confusion in the market as announcements of such is the prerogative of the RBZ.
Once that happens it also works against the restoration of confidence in the financial market.
</blockquote>
Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Zimbabwe to fully liberalise the foreign-exchange market to allow the rate to be determined by market forces.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Mthuli Ncube Implored To Avoid Announcing Monetary Policy Measures

Economic analysts have said the move by the government to offer USD allowances to civil servants might stimulate economic growth for a short while but it will expedite re dollarisation, The Zimbabwean reports.
Speaking to the publication, one economist and ZNCC CEO Christopher Mugaga said:
<blockquote>They are telling the civil servants to go and open nostro accounts. Who is going to fund those nostro accounts? (Reserve Bank governor John) Mangudya is on record as saying the country does not have enough foreign currency.
They have actually created a crisis of expectation, which is disastrous. What will they do after three months? It’s a move which shocked everyone. I think the decision was hastily made. By so doing, they have also expedited the re-dollarisation of the economy. We are actually leaving the multi-currency regime</blockquote>
Another economist who spoke on condition of anonymity said the move by the government will force the government to re-dollarise something the government is not ready for:
<blockquote>For instance, there are about 500 000 civil servants, including the security sector. If each of them deposits US$15 to open a nostro account, banks will have a total of US$7,5 million hard cash. Government will then raid that money like it has been doing. What a grand scheme!
The clever thing Mthuli has done is that they will not give out hard cash. This will stimulate economic activity locally. However, in the long run, it will force the government to fully dollarise the economy, something which they are not ready for as we do not have enough capacity to generate foreign currency. We mostly rely on commodity exports and diaspora remittances.</blockquote>
Another economist, John Robertson said the allowance will disappoint civil servants:
<blockquote>Apparently, George Charamba has confirmed that the US$75 civil servants allowance will not be paid in cash, but in RTGS form, so what they can spend will be 75 times the exchange rate on the day. With the auction setting the rate from next week, that rate will move from 25 to some other number that might move every week.
The US dollars in cash appear not to have been on the cards at all, but I can imagine the civil servants will be disappointed to receive a transfer into their EcoCash account or bond notes instead. I’ve heard a suggestion that tokens, exchangeable at OK (supermarkets), perhaps, will be the way they do it. All very unclear at present.</blockquote>
Civil servants have however rejected the USD Allowances with Doctors and nurses demanding that the allowance be paid out to in cash instead of being deposited into their Nostro accounts.
More: <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2020/06/19/us-dollar-allowance-to-stimulate-economic-activity/">The Zimbabwe Independent </a>

Govt's USD Allowances Will Expedite Re-Dollarisation - Economic Analysts

A chief economist said that the major issue affecting Zimbabwe’s economy is corruption and not the economic restrictions and travel embargoes imposed on certain individuals by Western governments.
Speaking to NewZimbabwe.com over the weekend, <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/ZNCC" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce</a> chief executive officer Christopher Mugaga said:
<blockquote>The biggest sanctions we are imposing on the nation is corruption. Sadc is not needed because we as a nation have the solutions.
We are aware of people who have been exposed by the Auditor General’s Reports over being corrupt, people like (former Cabinet Minister) <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Prisca_Mupfumira" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Prisca Mupfumira</a>. We need to improve on tackling corruption to avoid embarrassing ourselves.</blockquote>
Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Southern_African_Development_Community" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Southern African Development Community (SADC)</a> has been lobbying for the removal of the sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by Western countries, arguing that the embargo negatively affects the whole sub-region.
To that end, SADC has designated the 25th of October this year as a day for calling for the sanctions’ removal in solidarity with Zimbabwe.
<h4>More: <a href="https://www.newzimbabwe.com/deal-with-corruption-first-before-sanctions-mnangagwa-told/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NewZimbabwe.com</a></h4>

Corruption More Ruinous Than Sanctions - Economist

Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce CEO, Mr Christopher Mugaga has said said that the depreciation of the local currency against other currencies should be a cause for concern for the government.
Speaking to ZBC News, Mugaga said:
<blockquote>There is now reason for authorities to be worried as the level at which the rate is increasing is getting out of hand.</blockquote>
His remarks come when the local currency is shedding value at an unparalleled pace. Bloomberg, a USA publication recently reported that the <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2019/09/17/zimbabwes-currency-crisis-surpasses-all-globally-report/">Zimbabwean currency crisis was the worst globally.</a>
Authorities have over the past 24 months been introducing measures to sustain the local currency and all measures have so far failed to prove to be up for the task.
The government this year outlawed the use of all foreign currencies for domestic transactions in an endeavour to reduce pressure on the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar.
There were signs of stabilisation immediately after the development that was effected by Statutory Instrument 142 of 2019. Stability was however not for a sustained period of time.
As of Thursday, 19 September, economic research institutes such as Market Watch, <a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2019/09/19/updated-official-bank-rate-black-market-exchange-rates-today-19-september-2019/">reported that rates went up twice on the parallel market.</a>
Interbank Rates have also been soaring lately, prompting prices of all commodities to go up as well.
The currency crisis in the country has had an impact on workers’ salaries and wages as they were eroded by inflation.
More: <a href="http://www.zbc.co.zw/fluctuating-exchange-rate-threatens-macro-economic-stability/">ZBC News</a>

ZNCC CEO Says "Authorities Should Be Worried" By Fluctuating Exchange Rates

A report that the Zimbabwean government will soon introduce the “real” Zimbabwean dollar, that is, new notes and coins to replace the bond notes and coins introduced in 2016, has generated mixed responses from economists.
In an interview with Bloomberg sometime last week, Finance and Economic Development Minister, Mthuli Ncube said that Zimbabwe will soon have a new currency. Ncube is quoted as saying:
<blockquote>We already have our local currency, but this will be the first Zimbabwe dollar notes, which will trade at parity to the bond notes.</blockquote>
An economist and chief executive officer of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC), Christopher Mugaga is supportive of the move. He said:
<blockquote>Yes, we are ready for the new currency – we are supportive of government initiatives on monetary issues.
Our members are already trading in Zim dollar (bond notes and electronic currency).</blockquote>
However, another economist, Masimba Manyanya expressed scepticism during a phone interview with South Africa’s Fin24. He said:
<blockquote>The Zimbabwean economy needs its currency like elsewhere in the world. However, the issue with Zimbabwe is that the economy is not yet ready for a currency of its own, mainly because we do not have sufficient production locally.
I suggest that Mthuli find ways to create and boost industry and production before moving to introduce a local currency.
If you do not have the right frameworks in place, you may end up having a situation where you just have a valueless currency.</blockquote>
<h4>More: <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Economy/Africa/much-ado-about-new-zim-dollar-notes-20190820" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fin24</a></h4>

Mixed Reactions On Imminent Introduction Of 'Real' ZimDollar

The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) Chief Executive Officer Christopher Mugaga said that it unsustainable for the government to continue insisting on the 1:1 exchange rate between the US dollar and the bond note/RTGS.
Mugaga further argued that it was not necessary to set up a foreign currency committee as the allocation fo foreign currency could be done better by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ). Mugaga had this to say:
<blockquote>As the private sector, it’s high time we are open when we meet our minister and president to say ‘things are not well. You can’t run an economy this way. Because for you to bury your head in the sand and say you want to continue to sell fuel at $1.41, I tell you it’s impossible. That cascade you bought it for $2, 50 but you want to continue selling a litre of fuel at $1,41, those distortions are not sustainable.
Liberalise, you can’t control what you don’t have… That’s the government hand we are talking about.
….Foreign currency allocation committee, when I looked at the composition, the problem was having the committee in the first place because it’s not necessary but then when you have it you set bureaucrats in that all of them are from the government. Are you saying we couldn’t trust the RBZ to allocate forex alone? That we needed this minister and that minister to see what was happening. What signal are you sending into the market?
Some of our major challenges today date back to October 1 when treasury boss (Finance minister) Mthuli (Ncube) just said we will separate RTGS balances from FCA account. That was confirmation. That was the day we realized something is wrong with the RTGS balances and in the process, everyone started reacting. It was very wrong and quite disastrous and we are paying the price like it or hate we are re-dollarizing.</blockquote>
<h2>Related:</h2>
<ul>
<li class="entry-title">
<h3><a href="https://news.pindula.co.zw/2019/01/11/private-sector-warns-govt-against-excessive-interference-in-the-economy/">Private Sector Warns Govt Against Excessive Interference In The Economy</a></h3>
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<h3>More: <a href="https://mailandtelegraph.com/2019/01/10/remove-your-hand-off-the-economy-private-sector-tells-chiwenga-govt/">Mail and Telegraph</a></h3>

Things Are Not Well, You Can't Run An Economy This Way - Chamber Of Commerce Boss Tells Govt

The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) Chief Executive Officer Christopher Mugaga said that it unsustainable for the government to continue insisting on the 1:1 exchange rate between the US dollar and the bond note/RTGS.
Mugaga further argued that it was not necessary to set up a foreign currency committee as the allocation fo foreign currency could be done better by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ). Mugaga had this to say:
<blockquote>As the private sector, it’s high time we are open when we meet our minister and president to say ‘things are not well. You can’t run an economy this way. Because for you to bury your head in the sand and say you want to continue to sell fuel at $1.41, I tell you it’s impossible. That cascade you bought it for $2, 50 but you want to continue selling a litre of fuel at $1,41, those distortions are not sustainable.
Liberalise, you can’t control what you don’t have… That’s the government hand we are talking about.
….Foreign currency allocation committee, when I looked at the composition, the problem was having the committee in the first place because it’s not necessary but then when you have it you set bureaucrats in that all of them are from the government. Are you saying we couldn’t trust the RBZ to allocate forex alone? That we needed this minister and that minister to see what was happening. What signal are you sending into the market?
Some of our major challenges today date back to October 1 when treasury boss (Finance minister) Mthuli (Ncube) just said we will separate RTGS balances from FCA account. That was confirmation. That was the day we realized something is wrong with the RTGS balances and in the process, everyone started reacting. It was very wrong and quite disastrous and we are paying the price like it or hate we are re-dollarizing.</blockquote>
<h2>Related:</h2>
<ul>
<li>
<h3><a href="https://zero.pindula.co.zw/private-sector-warns-govt-against-excessive-interference-in-the-economy/">Private Sector Warns Govt Against Excessive Interference In The Economy</a></h3>
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</ul>
<h3>More: <a href="https://mailandtelegraph.com/2019/01/10/remove-your-hand-off-the-economy-private-sector-tells-chiwenga-govt/">Mail and Telegraph</a></h3>

The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) has warned the government that its excessive interference in the economy is stifling growth.
ZNCC Chief Executive Officer Christopher Mugaga said that government’s overreach is leaving little room for enterprise. Said Mugaga:
<blockquote>Government hand is just too much. There is no economy which has grown without room for enterprise. The government hand is just everywhere.
The tombstones because of price controls in this country, you can write a book. (Secondly), negotiations, you don’t bring politicians, you don’t need to bring an RBZ governor into a court to determine the salaries of teachers…You don’t call a vice president to come and meet on issues of the economy.</blockquote>
The comments come after Vice President Constantino Chiwenga met with striking junior doctors to end a long-running strike, as well as President Emmerson Mnangagwa meeting with teachers after they had threatened to go on strike.
<h3>More: <a href="https://mailandtelegraph.com/2019/01/10/remove-your-hand-off-the-economy-private-sector-tells-chiwenga-govt/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Mail and Telegraph</a></h3>

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