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International weather forecasters have downgraded predictions for La Niña’s formation and intensity, suggesting that southern Africa may not receive as much rainfall as initially hoped.
Last summer’s El Niño caused severe drought and crop failures, resulting in widespread food aid requirements.
There were high hopes that La Niña would follow, bringing good rains, but forecasts have become increasingly pessimistic.
In its bi-weekly outlook, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a bleak report on Tuesday about La Niña forming in 2024, raising concerns about another poor season for summer grain crops in southern Africa. It said:
<blockquote>
… the chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to recent outlooks.
If a La Niña were to develop, it is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values by February.
</blockquote>
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern affecting global weather. ENSO is currently in its neutral phase.
The El Niño phase occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to increased rainfall in some areas (like the western coast of South America) and droughts in others (like Southern Africa).
La Niña, the opposite phase, is characterised by cooler-than-normal ocean waters in the same region and often brings drier conditions to South America and wetter conditions to Southern Africa.
In the neutral phase, ocean temperatures and weather patterns are closer to average, with no significant warming or cooling.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests that if La Niña forms, its impact may be limited and could dissipate by February.
Other global forecasters are also adjusting their expectations for La Niña. A US government forecaster recently indicated that the likelihood of La Niña forming has been reduced and, if it does occur, it is expected to last until March.
A weak La Niña or a summer in the neutral zone does not necessarily mean this region will experience another drought.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Weather experts have changed their minds about the rainy season in southern Africa. They thought a weather pattern called La Niña would bring lots of rain, but now they are not so sure. Last year, a different pattern called El Niño caused a terrible drought in the region. If La Niña doesn't bring enough rain, there could be another drought this year. La Niña is when the sea is cooler than usual, leading to dry conditions in southern Africa. But right now, the sea is normal and there is no guarantee of lots of rain. Experts are keeping an eye on the situation and will give updates later.

Downgraded La Niña Forecasts Spark Fears Of Another Drought In Southern Africa

The Government has advised farmers that the 2023/24 rainy season has started and is likely to be short, reported <a href="https://www.herald.co.zw/rainy-season-starts-likely-to-be-short/">The Herald</a>.
Addressing the media on Tuesday, 12 December, Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Jenfan Muswere said most parts of the country are expected to receive rains this week. He said:
<blockquote>
Government highlights that rainfall is expected throughout the country during the week.
Farmers are therefore advised that the rainfall season has started and is likely to be short.
</blockquote>
Muswere said that around 2 877 000 hectares were targeted for planting summer crops this season.
Maize was projected to take 1 782 000 hectares, sorghum 350 000 hectares, pearl millet 200 000 hectares, soya beans 60 000 hectares, sunflower 160 000 hectares, sugar beans 55 000 hectares and cotton 270 000 hectares. Said Muswere:
<blockquote>
Of the total hectarage, 867 500 hectares will be financed by the Climate Proofed Presidential Inputs Supply Scheme (Pfumvudza/lntwasa), and the rest by CBZ, AFC, NMB and other banks and by the private sector and individual farmers.
As of 10 December 2023 and due to the late commencement of the rainfall season, about 95 156 hectares had been planted, compared to 465 707 hectares at the same time last year.
The country has sufficient seed in stock to meet demand, with 40,8 per cent of the available maize seed being of the early to ultra-early maturity varieties.
Significant progress has been recorded in farmer training and the preparation of Pfumvudza/lntwasa plots.
Farmers have generally favoured climate-proofing interventions during this El Nino year, with 87 per cent of the targeted 11,85 million plots having been prepared.
In terms of livestock, Government has instituted immediate remedial measures including borehole drilling, hay bailing and enhanced disease management, to alleviate the poor livestock condition in the drier provinces.
The worst affected provinces are Matabeleland South, Matabeleland North and Masvingo.
</blockquote>
Zimbabwe experienced a prolonged drought from late October to early December which greatly affected farming as the majority of farmers rely on rain.
The 2023/24 season has been impacted by the El Nino phenomenon, which according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), may last at least until April 2024.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Rainy Season Likely To Be Short - Govt

Zimbabwe has not given up hope on a normal to above-normal rainfall season despite low rainfall activity since the start of the 2022/2023 rainfall season, a Cabinet minister has said.
Addressing Tuesday’s post-Cabinet briefing, Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said most areas have received the rainfall that is expected during this time of the year. She said:
<blockquote>
Cabinet advises the nation that the country continues to be in the normal to above-normal rainfall category, despite the reduced rainfall activity experienced during the past week.
Most areas across the country have received rainfall which is expected at this time of the year.
</blockquote>
Mutsvangwa also said rural farmers are being registered and trained for the Pfumvudza programme, with the distribution of farming inputs ongoing. Mutsvangwa said:
<blockquote>
Inputs distribution, registration and training on Pfumvudza/Intwasa are in progress, with distribution continuing to be done according to agro-ecological zone requirements.
A total of 2 888 163 Pfumvudza/Intwasa farmers have been trained to date compared to 2 294 471 at the same time of the previous season.
Similarly, 5 121 509 plots have been prepared compared to 2 859 714 plots at the same time of the previous season.
Cabinet highlights that 86% (68 106 metric tonnes) of the received basal fertilizer has been distributed across the provinces, while 78% (21 084 metric tonnes) of top dressing fertiliser has been distributed.
Out of the 15 500 metric tonnes of the ordered maize seed, 13 189 metric tonnes has been received. Planting has commenced in many areas.
</blockquote>

Normal To Above-normal Rainfall Still Expected - Govt

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