The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says that the weak La Niña weather pattern that started in December 2024 is expected to end soon.
La Niña typically brings above-average rainfall to Zimbabwe and neighbouring countries. However, the WMO report states that this extra rainfall is likely to decrease in the next few weeks.
According to the WMO’s latest update on March 6, 2025, there is a 60% chance that the weather conditions will return to neutral, not favouring either El Niño or La Niña, during the March to May 2025 period. This probability increases to 70% for the April to June 2025 timeframe. It added:
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Meanwhile, the probability of El Niño developing is negligible during the forecast period (March to June). However, uncertainty in the long-lead forecasts is higher than usual due to the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known challenge in long-term forecasts of El Nino and La Niña.
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WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña, along with their global impacts on weather and climate patterns, are essential tools for informing early warnings and actions.
These forecasts are part of a broad range of services provided by the WMO community to assist in decision-making.
She explained that such forecasts have led to millions of dollars in economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, and transport, and have saved thousands of lives by facilitating disaster risk preparedness.
La Niña refers to the significant cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, along with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, such as wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. La Niña generally causes climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.
However, the effects of climate events like La Niña and El Niño are now happening within the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is raising global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather events, and altering seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
As a result, January 2025 was recorded as the warmest January ever, even with weak La Niña conditions since December 2024, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reached the La Niña threshold.
While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate patterns, it is not the only factor influencing the Earth’s climate.
With above-normal sea surface temperatures expected to persist across most major oceans—except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific—the latest Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU) predict above-average temperatures for nearly all land areas worldwide.
More: <a href="https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/la-nina-event-expected-be-short-lived">World Meteorological Organisation</a>

Pindula News

The weather pattern La Niña brought extra rain to Zimbabwe, but it will fade soon. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the chances of rain returning to normal are high in the coming months. La Niña and El Niño affect weather patterns, but human-induced climate change is also making things hotter. Even with weak La Niña, January 2025 was the warmest ever. The WMO helps with forecasts to save money and lives in sectors like agriculture and transport. Expect above-average temperatures worldwide except in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Zimbabwe's Above-Average Rainfall Likely To Diminish As La Niña Fades

The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in a new update.
The WMO said the weather event is expected to influence weather patterns and contribute to a further rise in temperatures both on land and in the ocean. <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/el-ni%C3%B1o-expected-last-least-until-april-2024">WMO said in a statement</a>:
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As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August and reached moderate strength by September 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November – January 2024.
There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.
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El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months and is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The WMO report further states that most recent forecasts and expert assessments suggest a high likelihood of continued warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific for at least the next four overlapping 3-month seasons: November-January, December-February, January-March, and February-April 2024.
WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas noted that human activities contribute to rising temperatures associated with El Niño. He said:
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El Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024.
But as a result of record-high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record.
Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities.
Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts.
That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimize economic losses.
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Predictions for rainfall in the forthcoming three months are similar to many of the typical impacts of El Niño.
Below-normal rainfall is predicted in most of northern South America, over much of Australia, and southern Africa.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

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